Reincarnated as Nikolai II

Chapter 239 The Turning Point (5)

If there's anything I've learned about 'history' over decades of careful observation and study, it's definitely that everything operates through intricate chains of cause and effect. More specifically, it's about plausibility - the delicate thread that weaves through all historical events.

Plausibility. The measured assessment of certainty and possibility that something can happen, based on the complex interplay of various factors and conditions present at any given moment in time.

Let's take the cause and effect of the Sarajevo incident as a particularly illuminating example of this principle.

In June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, and for the following month, Europe held its breath, uncertain whether this spark would ignite the powder keg of war. The tension was palpable, yet the outcome remained unclear.

Because initially, no country had been explicitly preparing for war with a confirmed date - they were all watching, waiting, and carefully calculating their next moves in this dangerous diplomatic dance.

However, looking a bit deeper into the historical context, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was an incredibly natural and plausible event, almost inevitable given the circumstances of the time.

The simmering confrontation between imperialist powers had been building for decades, with each nation expanding its colonial reach and military might while eyeing its rivals with growing suspicion.

Nationalism, particularly the conflict between South Slavic nationalism and the Central Powers. The mushrooming nationalist organizations and their sponsors.

Archduke Ferdinand's ethno-liberal tendencies. Continue your journey on My Virtual Library Empire

The annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire's Balkan economic sanctions.

The Anglo-French rivalry and arms race.

At first glance, the Sarajevo incident itself seems like a case where the first assassination attempt failed, the second failed, and only the third succeeded through a combination of bad luck and stupid choices.

It means it was truly an event with low plausibility, where the Archduke died through extreme bad luck and led to the Great War.

However, if you add all the direct and indirect root causes that happened before?

"War would have broken out even if Archduke Ferdinand hadn't died."

The historical flow manifests itself with the inexorable certainty of natural law, like gravity or thermodynamics. Just as water finds its level, nations find their conflicts.

"Count Fredericks. Please call Beren Volkov. If we drag this out sluggishly, that republic might really die."

"Understood."

Since what I wanted to know is finished anyway, there's no harm in bowing once here.

They might think this Ruhr situation's resolution determines Germany's survival, but not to me.

For the Russian Empire, the Ruhr occupation was a clue revealing the Allied Powers and Axis Powers, enemies and allies.

==

The Big Four victors, French lapdog Belgium, and Italy who was anxious about being left out - six countries in total each sent two people to Berlin.

Berlin, Europe's largest metropolis with a population of 4 million.

As soon as Beren, who once made headlines worldwide by raising independent negotiations in the State Duma, arrived in Berlin, a familiar sensation seemed to envelop his entire body.

Though it was clearly a city he had never experienced or visited before, somehow it felt familiar.

Though the architecture was different, the language heard on the streets was different, and even the meals served at his hotel table were different.

Memories from long ago slowly surface.

'...It's like when I came to St. Petersburg from the Far East as a Duma deputy.'

Chaos. That strange sensation where the entire city is infected by chaos, emitting a gloomier air than smog.

"I heard both far-left and far-right suffer from assassinations, and it wasn't a lie. Their gangs are positioned in every alley. The city's public safety must not be good."

Seeing his secretary make similar comments, it seems he wasn't being particularly sensitive.

"But it's strange. No matter how bad public safety is, how can they roam in groups like that? The police just leave them alone?"

"They can't touch them. See how they're all wearing the same colored clothes? It means they're not just thugs but political gangsters."